Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

Published in the journal Vaccine, this study provides an evaluation of the benefits and costs of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), which is a public-private partnership led by national governments and spearheaded by the World Health Organization (WHO), Rotary International, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF). Considering investments made since the GPEI was formed in 1988 and those anticipated through 2035, the authors of the study estimate that the global initiative to eradicate polio could provide net benefits of at least US$40-50 billion if transmission of wild poliovirus (WPV) is interrupted within the next 5 years. Over this time period, they say, the GPEI's efforts will prevent more than 8 million cases of paralytic polio in children. "This study finds a strong economic justification for the GPEI despite the rising costs of the initiative."

This economic analysis of the GPEI reflects the status of the programme as of February 2010, including full consideration of post-eradication policies. For the GPEI intervention, the researchers considered the actual pre-eradication experience to date followed by 2 distinct potential future post-eradication vaccination policies. They estimated GPEI costs based on actual and projected expenditures and poliomyelitis incidence using reported numbers corrected for underreporting and model projections. For the comparator, which assumes only routine vaccination for polio historically and into the future (i.e., no GPEI), they estimated poliomyelitis incidence using a dynamic infection transmission model and vaccination costs based on numbers of vaccinated children. The study examined the 104 countries that directly benefitted from the GPEI, which include predominantly lower-income countries. Many higher-income countries eliminated WPV before the GPEI began. Thus, the estimated net benefits in the study do not include the benefits already accruing in developed countries. The net benefits result from the prevention of paralytic cases, which leads to treatment costs savings and avoided losses in productivity due to paralysis and death.

The study was led by Kid Risk, Inc., an independent non-profit organisation started in 2009 as the successor to the Kids Risk Project at the United States (US)-based Harvard School of Public Health. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provided support for the study.