CDC Assessment of the Risks to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Strategic Plan 2010 - 2012

From the Global Immunization Division and Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this 2011 first quarter report  evaluates indicators based on the criteria in the 2011 Strategic Plan Major Process Indicators (MPIs) applied over the previous 12 months.


For each of the countries affected by polio, in addition to the assessment of risk of failure, this report indicates the outcome of the 2010 MPIs and progress toward 2011 MPIs by the use of symbols on a map of Wild Poliovirus (WPV) cases and circulating vaccine derived polioviruses (cVDPV), using symbols for:

• Fully achieved, or achieved thus far in 2011
• Not achieved, or not yet achieved in 2011
• No data to assess

It provides a risk assessment for the four polio-endemic countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Nigeria and in re-established transmission countries: Sudan, Angola, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Data used to assess risk include "independent monitoring (IM) of Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) and ... Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance, used to determine nonpolio AFP (NPAFP) rates" compared with World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) country immunization coverage estimates for the third routine oral polio vaccine (OPV) dose (Pol3) in 2009.

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